Blackjack Strategy Deviations
LS
17 vs A
16 vs 7
16 vs A
15 vs 7
15 vs 8
15 vs A
14 vs A
13 vs 10
88 vs A
The charts should look like this and show how the advantage changes with the count. I want to see a chart and not just index numbers.
I only need the ones listed above because I got the rest from https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
I know I'm asking for a lot and I doubt anyone will even bother with my first request, but it would be great if I could also get charts for the following:
6 Deck H17 DAS
99 vs A
6 Deck H17 NDAS
99 vs A
Double Downs for 6 Deck H17
11 vs A
10 vs A
8 vs 6
7 vs 6
A8 vs 6
A2 vs 6
6 Deck H17 Hard Hit/Stand
16 vs A
15 vs A
12 vs 6
A7 vs A
I'm making a basic strategy chart that includes playing deviations in the chart. Basic strategy is the first word when there is a playing deviation in a white space. Here is what I have so far. If I can get the charts I asked for, I will show the updated chart.
Edit: The values for the previous chart were floored. They should be correct now.
The black numbers are EV-Maximizing indices. They are not ideal for Doubling, Splitting, and Surrendering. If I can get charts for the following, I can improve the table. I will post the rest of this table if I can get what I asked for, along with a table for 6 Deck, S17, DAS, LS. I have added all of the playing deviations from the site I previously linked except for a few splits that are not worth the risk.
When it comes to doubling, you should double for less if the true count is in between the EV-Maximizing index and the Risk Averse index. If it's below the black number, you would hit. If it's above the gold number, you would do a full double down. The same goes for Insurance. Insure for less if the true count is between the two numbers. As for even money, you either take it or don't, but it's still risk averse. This is ideal for Kelly betting.
I can add way more to these tables if someone is willing to send me the charts. I will post more tables if someone is willing to help me with playing deviation charts.
Mar 26, 2014
For blackjack and its variants (e.g. Blackjack Switch, Spanish 21), the true count also serves a strategic purpose: the AP has mid-hand decisions to make (stand, hit, double, split, surrender) that vary based on the true count. For example, in blackjack: With a high true count (larger bet), the AP will adjust his play from basic strategy. Deposit and Blackjack Strategy Deviations play through £200 to get 200 wager-free spins. 18+ New eligible UK players only. Offer must be claimed within 14 days of registration. All wager-free spins are available on Starburst and have a £0.10 value each; expire 5 days. So what are blackjack deviations? Deviations are simply times where you will alter your play. They are always mathematically driven, meaning they are never based off of a hunch or a pattern of wins or losses. There are 2 kinds of deviations: Playing Deviations and Betting Deviations. Our advice is to learn this chart, then move on to learning card counting and the blackjack deviations associated with the game you will be playing (H17 vs S17). There are also slight variations in strategy when you play a 6 deck game versus a single deck game.
While poker requires people reading skills to win and roulette just requires a hell of a lot of luck, blackjack on the other hand boasts one of the lowest houses edges in the casino, making it the game to place your bets on, but how can you use mathematics to your advantage?
It doesn’t take long to learn perfect basic blackjack strategy, and if you know what you’re doing you can even get as far as lowering the house edge to 0.5%.
The house edge alone is not a determining factor in whether you win or lose, since the unexpected always happens in cards, which is why it’s called gambling in the first place, but there is a mathematical area for deviation that can give you an insight into your winning and losses.
The secret behind blackjack lies in the mathematics behind statistics, in the variance and its standard deviation.
Deviating from the standard
When you use strategy to lower the house edge down to 0.5%, theoretically this means that after playing a certain amount of time, you’ll lose 0.5% of your money, which goes back to the casino.
Some basic blackjack strategy tips:
• Always hit a hard 4 to 8
• Always stand on a hard 17 and on any combination above 18
• Surrender a 16 versus 10
• Double a hard 10 or 11 if more than the dealer
However, real life is not as simple as that, since there is always room for a variation, which mathematically is deemed as the “variance”, which is calculated by measuring the standard deviation.
In statistics, probability is not an act of chaos with no pattern, but rather follows a bell curve, where the middle corresponds with the average, and the distribution shows all the possible outcomes and their probabilities.
The standard deviation is essentially the number marking the number of units falling to each side of the average, which means that 68% of the outcomes will fall within the standard deviation of the average.
Mathematically, this also means that 95% and 99.7% of the outcomes will fall within 2 and 3 standard deviations, respectively.
Standard deviation and its effect on blackjack
If you account for all the blackjack rules and basic strategy of blackjack, the standard deviation of the game falls at the value of 1.14, in general.
This means that in a game with a 0.5% house edge, the standard deviation marks the odds to win and lose on both sides of the bell curve. This means that 68% of the time you’d either win or lose 1.14 units, and 95% of the time win or lose 2.28 units.
But again, statistics also shifts depending on how many hands you play, and the more hands you do play mean that you get closer to the average. Thereby by including the variable of your dealt hands, you can predict your winning and losing likelihood by a fixed number.
To calculate the amount you win or lose, you basically take the square root of the number of hands played and multiply by 1.14.
So that means for 100 hands of blackjack, yields a standard deviation of 11.4 in this case. So betting, say, $1 per hand would yield an expected loss of 50cents, since the house edge is 0.5% (for 200 hands, this would go up to $1).
If you play 100 hands, then there is a 68% chance you could win or lose $11.4, for example. While there is room for manoeuvre, you can use standard deviation to budget your losses.
Show me the money
Let’s take a more concrete example. Let’s see how often you would lose $50 in a game of blackjack using the above examples.
To calculate this you need to factor in the expected loss (50cents for 100 hands) and measure the difference from the actual loss ($50 in this case). So the difference applied here is $49.5.
You then need to apply the standard deviation for your set of hands, so for 100 hands this is 11.4, as seen before, and divide this difference so 49.5/11.4 = 4.34.
This means losing $50 is over 3 standard deviations, so the chances of winning or losing the amount is in the margin of around 0.3% of time.
Using standard deviation can help you to optimize and minimize your risk. Playing 100 hands of blackjack and betting $1, with setting your maximum loss at $50, means that you’re only likely to lose that amount 0.3% of the time.
Blackjack Basic Strategy Deviations
To maximize your blackjack game, you simply need a smart strategy and a bit of statistics know-how.
Playing with standard deviation means you can leave your card counting system at home for once, and not get yourself banned from a casino.
Tags: blackjack strategy, card counting system, smart strategy, Standard deviation, Variance
Blackjack Deviation Chart Printable
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